Scenario-based modelling of ecological security: Integrating land use and climate change impacts in the Lavasanat Watershed

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Safety, Health and Environment, Faculty of Passive Defense, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran

2 Ph.D. in Environmental Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Understanding the impact of land-use and climate change on ecosystem services is crucial for ecological security assessments. This study examines spatiotemporal land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes in the Lavasanat watershed, Tehran, Iran (2000–2040) and evaluates their effects on water yield under different management and climate scenarios.
Four LULC scenarios were defined: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (pessimistic), S3 (realistic), and S4 (optimistic). Additionally, three climate scenarios (B1, N, and M) were incorporated into the analysis. The InVEST model was used to simulate water yield variations, while CA-Markov and LARS-WG5 projected future LULC and climate conditions.
Findings indicate a 1.92-fold increase in water yield in residential areas from 2000 to 2020. The highest water yield was recorded under S2N (37.64 million m³ watershed-wide, 35.09 million m³ in residential areas), while the lowest was observed under S4M (8.33 million m³ watershed-wide, 7.35 million m³ in residential areas). All scenarios suggest that urban expansion will continue to drive water yield increases while reducing ecologically valuable lands by 2040.
These findings highlight the critical role of sustainable land-use planning in mitigating environmental degradation and ensuring ecological security in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Ahern, J., and Andre, L. 2003. Applying landscape ecological concepts and metrics in sustainable landscape planning. Landscape and Urban Planning. 59(2), 65-93.
Arrow, K., Bolin, B., Costanza, R., Dasgupta, P., Folke, C., Holling, C.S., and Pimentel, D. 1995. Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment. Ecological Economist. 15 (2), 91–95.
Ayres, R.U., and Van Den Bergh, J.C.J.M. 2005. A theory of economic growth with material/energy resources and dematerialization: Interaction of three growth mechanisms. Ecological Economist. 55, 96–118.
Balist, J., Malekmohammadi, B., Jafari, H.R., Nohegar, A., and Geneletti, D. 2022a. Modeling the supply, demand, and stress of water resources using ecosystem services concept in Sirvan River Basin (Kurdistan-Iran). Water Supply. 22(3), 2816.
Balist, J., Malekmohammadi, B., Jafari, H.R., Nohegar, A., and Geneletti, D. 2022b. Detecting land use and climate impacts on water yield ecosystem service in arid and semi‑arid areas. A study in Sirvan River Basin‑Iran. Applied Water Science 12,4.
Bartel, A. 2000. Analysis of landscape pattern: towards a ‘top down’indicator for evaluation of landuse. Ecological Modelling. 130 (1-3), 87-94.
Boithias, L., Acuña, V., Vergoñós, L., Ziv, G., Marcé, R.,  and Sabater, S. 2014. Assessment of the water supply: demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives. Science of the Total Environment. 470, 567-577.
Brisbane, D. 2007. The Brisbane Declaration: Environmental flows are essential for freshwater ecosystem health and human well-being. In 10th International River Symposium, Brisbane, 3-6.
Bryan, B.A. 2013. Incentives, land use and ecosystem services: synthesizing complex linkages. Environmental Science andPolicy. 27, 124-134.
Cao, X., Liu, Z., Li, S., and Gao, Z. 2022. Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, 6640.
Chen, L, Sun, R, and Yang, L. 2018. Regional Eco-security: Concept, Principles and Pattern Design, Challenges Towards Ecological Sustainability in China. Publisher: Springer International Publishing.
Chen, M., Qin, X., Zeng, G., and Li, J. 2016. Impacts of human activity modes and climate on heavy metal “spread” in groundwater are biased. Chemosphere, 152: 439-445.
Chen, Y., Wang, J. 2020. Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model. Ecological Indicators. 111, 106000–106010.
Chen, Y., Wang, J., Kurbanov, E., Thomas, A., Sha, J., and Jiao, Y. 2022. Ecological security assessment at different spatial scales in central Yunnan Province, China. PLoS ONE, 17(6), e0270267.
Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., Van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S.J., Kubiszewski, I., and Turner, R.K. 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services.Global Environmental Change. 26, 152-158.
De Marco, P., and Coelho, F.M. 2004. Services performed by the ecosystem: forest remnants influence agricultural cultures’ pollination and production. Biodiversity and Conservation. 13(7), 1245-1255.
Feng, Y., Liu, Y., and Liu, Y. 2017. Spatially explicit assessment of land ecological security with spatial variables and logistic regression modeling in Shanghai, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 31 (9), 2235–2249.
Fu, W., Turner, J. C.,  Zhao, J., and Du, G. 2015. Ecological footprint (EF): An expanded role in calculating resource productivity (RP) using China and the G20 member countries as examples. Ecological Indicators. 48, 464-471.
Gao, P. P., Li, Y. P., Sun, J., and Li, H. W. 2018. Coupling fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making with analytic hierarchy process to evaluate urban ecological security: A case study of Guangzhou, China. Ecological Complexity. 34, 23–34.
Ghosh, S., Chatterjee, N.D., and Dinda, S. 2021.Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting using integrated DEMATEL-ANP and CA-Markov models: A case study on Kolkata Metropolitan Area, India. Sustainable Cities and Society. 68, 102773.
Guo, Z., Zhang, L., and Li, Y. 2010. Increased dependence of humans on ecosystem services and biodiversity. PLoS One. 5.
Haines-Young, R., Potschin, M., and Kienast, F. 2012. ndicators of ecosystem service potential at European scales: mapping marginal changes and trade-offs. Ecological Indicators. 21, 39-53.
Hamel, P., and Guswa, A. J. 2015. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: Case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 19(2): 839–853.
Han, B.,  Liu, H., and Wang, R. 2015. Urban ecological security assessment for cities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region based on fuzzy and entropy methods. Ecological Modelling. 318, 217-225.
He, C., Liu, Z., Tian, J., and Ma, Q. 2014. Urban expansion dynamics and natural habitat loss in China: a multiscale landscape perspective.Global Change Biology. 20, 2886–2902.
Hu, H., Liu, W., and Cao, M. 2008. Impact of land use and land cover changes on ecosystem services in Menglun, Xishuangbanna, Southwest China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 146(1-3), 147-156.
Hu, W., Li, G., Gao, Zh., Jia, G., Wang, Zh., and Li, Y. 2020.  Assessment of the impact of the Poplar Ecological Retreat Project on water conservation in the Dongting Lake wetland region using the InVEST model. Science of the Total Environment. 733, 139423.
Hua, F.,  and Bruijnzeel, L.A. 2022. The biodiversity and ecosystem service contributions and trade-offs of forest restoration approaches. Science. 376, 839–844.
Huang, H., Chen, B., Ma, Z.Y., and Liu, Z.H. 2017. Assessing the ecological security of the estuary in view of the ecological services – a case study of the Xiamen Estuary. Ocean Coast. Manage. 137, 12–23.
Huseynov, E. 2011. Planning of sustainable cities in view of green architecture, International Conference on Green Buildings and Sustainable Cities. Procedia Engineering 2, Available online at www.sciencedirect.com. 534–542.
Jie, X., Yu, X., Na, L., and Hao, W. 2015. Spatial and temporal patterns of supply and demand balance of water supply services in the Dongjiang Lake Basin and its beneficiary areas. Journal of Resources and Ecology. 6(6), 386-396.
Kattel, G.R, Elkadi, H., and Meikle, H. 2013. Developing a complementary framework for urban ecology. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening. 12 (4), 498-508.
Khramtsov, B. 2006. A primer on ecological security. Delegates of the 34th National Student Commonwealth Forum. vol. 30.
Kim, S.W., and Jung, Y.Y. 2020. Application of the InVEST model to quantify the water yield of North Korean Forests. Forests. 11,804.
Kindu, M., Schneider, T., Teketay, D., and Knoke, T. 2016. Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa–Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Science of The Total Environment. 547, 137-147.
Kong, F., Ban, Y., Yin, H., James, P., and Dronova, I. 2017. Modeling stormwater management at the city district level in response to changes in land use and low impact development. Environmental Modelling and Software. 95, 132–142.
Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., and Fischer-Kowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century. Ecological Economy. 68, 2696–2705.
Li, J., Song, C., Cao, L., Zhu, F., Meng, X., and Wu, J. 2011. Impacts of landscape structure on surface urban heat islands: a case study of Shanghai, China. Remote Sensing of Environment.115(12), 3249–3263.
Li, M., Zang, B., Li, S., and Wu, C. 2014. A review of remote sensing image classification techniques: the role of spatio-contextual information. European Journal of Remote Sensing. 47, 389- 411.
Li, R.Q., Dong, M., Cui, J.Y., Zhang, L.L., Cui, Q.G.,.and He, W.M. 2007. Quantification of the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services: a case study in Pingbian County, China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 128(1-3), 503-510.
Li, Z.T., Yuan, M.J, Hu, M.M., Wang, Y.F., and Xia, B.Ch. 2019. Evaluation of ecological security and influencing factors analysis based on robustness analysis and the BP-DEMALTE model: A case study of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. Ecological Indicators. 101,595-602.
Liquete, C., Maes, J., La Notte, A., and Bidoglio, G. 2011. Securing water as a resource for society: an ecosystem services perspective.” Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology 11(3-4), 247-259.
Liu, P., Jia, Sh., Han, R., and Zhang, H. 2018. Landscape Pattern and Ecological Security Assessment and Prediction Using Remote Sensing Approach. Journal of Sensors. 4,1058513.
Liu, T., Wang, H.Z., Wang, H.Z.,  and Xu, H. 2021. The spatiotemporal evolution of ecological security in China based on the ecological footprint model with localization of parameters. Ecological Indicators. 126, 107636.
Liu, Y., Song, W., Mu, F. 2017. Changes in ecosystem services associated with planting structures of cropland: A case study in Minle County in China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C, 102: 10-20.
Liu, Z., Gan, X., Dai, W., and Huang, Y. 2022. Construction of an Ecological Security Pattern and the Evaluation of Corridor Priority Based on ESV and the “Importance–Connectivity” Index: A Case Study of Sichuan Province, China. Sustainability, 14, 3985.
Lu, Sh., Li, J., Guan, X., Gao, X., Gu.Y., Zhang, D., Mi, F., and Li, D. 2018. The evaluation of forestry ecological security in China: Developing a decision support system. Ecological Indicators. 91, 664-678.
Lundquist, J. E., and Sommerfeld, R. A. 2002. Use of fourier transforms to define landscape scales of analysis for disturbances: a case study of thinned and unthinned forest stands. Landscape Ecology. 17 (5), 445-454.
Ma, L., Bo, J., Li, X., Fang, F., and Cheng, W. 2019. Identifying key landscape pattern indices influencing the ecological security of inland river basin: The middle and lower reaches of Shule River Basin as an example. Science of the Total Environment. 674, 424–438.
MacMillan, R.A., Moon, D.E., and Coupe, R.A. 2007. Automated predictive ecological mapping in a Forest Region of B.C. Canada, 2001-2005. Geoderma. 140 (4), 353-373.
Novin, V., Jafari, H. R., and Hoveidi, H. 2022. Developing of HSE management system model and its application in sustainable development planning, based on artificial intelligence. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. 19(10), 9655-9668.
Oertel, E. 2024. “Linked spatial and temporal success of urban growth boundaries to preserve ecosystem services. ” Landscape Urban Plann.
Opdam, P., Steingrover, E., and Rooij, S.V. 2006. Ecological networks: A spatial concept for multi-actor planning of sustainable landscapes. Landscape and Urban Planning. 75, 322–332.
Peng, Ch., Li, B., and Nan, B. 2021. An analysis framework for the ecological security of urban agglomeration: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Journal of Cleaner Production. 315,128111.
Peng, J., Liu, Y., Liu, Z,, and Yang, Y. 2017. Mapping spatial non-stationarity of human-natural factors associated with agricultural landscape multifunctionality in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, China. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment. 246, 221–233.
Peng, J., Pan, Y.J., Liu, Y.X., Zhao, H.J,, and Wang, Y.L. 2018a. Linking ecological degradation risk to identify ecological security patterns in a rapidly urbanizing landscape. Habitat International. 71, 110-124.
Peng, J., Yang, Y., Liu, Y.X., Hu, Y.N., Du, Y.Y., Meersmans, J., and Qiu, S.J. 2018b. Linking ecosystem services and circuit theory to identify ecological security patterns. Science of The Total Environment. 644, 781-790.
Peng, J., Zhao, S.Q., Dong, J.Q., Liu, Y.X., Meersmans, J., Li, H.L., and Wu, J.S. 2019. Applying ant colony algorithm to identify ecological security patterns in megacities. Environmental Modelling and Software. 117, 214-222.
Pessacg, N., Flaherty, S., Brandizi, L., Solman, S., and Pascual, M. 2015. Getting water right: A case study in water yield modelling based on precipitation data. Science of the Total Environment. 537, 225-234.
Qiao, X., Li, Y., Wang, Y. 2024. The influence of climate and human factors on a regional heat island in the zhengzhou metropolitan area. China Environmenal Resources. 249, 118331.
Qin, K., Liu, J., Yan, L., and Huang, H. 2019.Integrating ecosystem services flows into water security simulations in water scarce areas: Present and future. Science of Total Environment. 670, 1037- 1048.
Rahimi, L., Malekmohammadi, B., and Yavari, A.R. 2020. Assessing and Modeling the Impacts of Wetland Land Cover Changes on Water Provision and Habitat Quality Ecosystem Services. Natural Resources Research. 29,3701–3718.
Rahmani Fazli, A., Monshizadeh, R., Rahmani, B.,  and Alipourian, J. 2017. Good Governance Based Rural Management and its Role in Sustainable Rural Development (Case Study: A Comparison between Central District of Kuhdasht and Lavasanat District of Shemiranat). Journal of Research and Rural Planning. 6(17),133-152.
Rasoolimanesh, M., Nurwati, B., and Mastura, J. 2011. City Development Strategies (CDS) and Sustainable Urbanization in Developing World. ASEAN Conference on Environment Behaviour Studies, Savoy Homann Bidakara Bandung Hotel, Bandung, Indonesia.15-17, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 36, Available online at www.sciencedirect.com, 623 – 631.
Salvati, L., and Carlucci, M. 2014. Zero net land degradation in Italy: the role of socioeconomic and agro-forest factors. Journal of Environmental Management. 145, 299–306.
Smith, E.J. 1997. The balance between public water supply and environmental needs. Water and Environment Journal. 11(1), 8-13.
Su, X., Shen, Y., Xiao, Y., Liu, Y., Cheng, H., Wan, L., Zhou, S., Yang, M., Wang, Q., and Liu, G. 2022. Identifying Ecological Security Patterns Based on Ecosystem Services Is a Significative Practice for Sustainable Development in Southwest China. Frontiers in Ecology and Evoluation. 9,810204.
Su, Y., Chen, X., Liao, J., Zhang, H., Wang, C., Ye, Y., and Wang, Y. 2016. Modeling the optimal ecological security pattern for guiding the urban constructed land expansions. Urban For. Urban Green. 19, 35–46.
Sun, S., Sun, G., Cohen, E., McNulty, S.G., Caldwell, P.V., Duan, K., and Zhang, Y. 2016. Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 20(2), 935-952.
Talari, A. 2016. Morphometric Analysis Lavasanat Basin and Affecting Drainge Network Changes. University of Tehran, Faculty of Geography, Thesis submtted to the Graduate studies office In partial fulfillment requirements for the degree of MSC, Under Supervision pf: Dr. Ebtahim Moghimi and Mojtaba Yamani.
Tang, Y., Zhao,  X., and Jiao, J. 2020. Ecological security evaluation of Chaohu Lake Basin of China in the context of River Chief System reform. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 27 (3).
Terrado, M., Acuña, V., Ennaanay, D., Tallis, H., and Sabater, S. 2014. Impact of climate extremes on hydrological ecosystem services in a heavily humanized Mediterranean basin. Ecological Indicators. 37,199–209.
Van Vliet, J., and Verburg, P.H., Gra˘dinaru, S., Hersperger, A.M. 2019. Beyond the urban-rural dichotomy: towards a more nuanced analysis of changes in built-up land. Comput. Environ. Urban System. 74, 41–49.
Wang, H., and Bao, Ch. 2021. Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Ecological Indicators. 125(107613).
Wang, H., Qin, F., and Zhang, X. 2019. A spatial exploring model for urban land ecological security based on a modified artificial bee colony algorithm. Ecological Informatics. 50,51 – 61.
Wang, S., Sun, C.Z., Li, X.,  and Zou, W. 2016.  Sustainable development in China’s coastal area: based on the driver-pressure-state-welfare-response framework and the data envelopment analysis model.Sustainability. 8 (9), 958–977.
Wang, S.J., Ma, H.T., and Zhao, Y.B. 2014. Exploring the relationship between urbanization and the eco-environment–a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Ecological Indicator. 45 (5), 171–183.
Wang, Y., and Pan, J. 2019. Building ecological security patterns based on ecosystem services value reconstruction in an arid inland basin: A case study in Ganzhou District, NW China. Journal of Cleaner Production. 24
Wu, X., Liu, Sh., Sun, Y., An, Y., Dong, S.h., and Liu, G. 2019. Ecological security evaluation based on entropy matter-element model: A case study of Kunming city, Southwest China. Ecological Indicators. 102, 469- 478.
Wu, Y., Zhang, T., Zhang, H., Pan, T., Ni, X., Grydehøj, A., and Zhang, J. 2020. Factors influencing the ecological security of island cities: A neighborhoodscale study of Zhoushan Island, China. Sustainable Cities and Society. 55, 102029.
Xie, H., He, Y., Choi, Y., Chen, Q., and Cheng, H. 2020. Warning of negative effects of land-use changes on ecological security based on GIS. Science of the Total Environment, 704(2020)135427.
Yang, D., Liu, W., Tang, L., Chen, L., Li, X., and Xu, X. 2019. Estimation of water provision service for monsoon catchments of South China: Applicability of the InVEST model. Landscape and Urban Planning. 182,133-143.
Yang, X., Zhou, Z., Li, J., Fu, X., Mu, X., and Li, T. 2016. Trade-offs between carbon sequestration, soil retention and water yield in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 26(10), 1449-1462.
Yang, Y., and Cai, Z. 2020. Ecological security assessment of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration based on an adapted ecological footprint model. Journal of Cleaner Production. 260, 120973.
Yang, Y., Chen, J., Huang, R., Feng, Z., Zhou, G., You, H.,  and Han, X. 2022. Construction of Ecological Security Pattern Based on the Importance of Ecological Protection—A Case Study of Guangxi, a Karst Region in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 19, 5699.
Yin, G., Wang, X., Zhang, X., Fu, Y., Hao, F., and Hu, Q. 2020. InVEST model based estimation of water yield in North China and its sensitivities to climate variables. Water. 12,1692.
Yu, D., Wang, D.Y., Li, W.B., and Liu, S.H. 2018. Decreased landscape ecological security of peri-urban cultivated land following rapid urbanization: an impediment to sustainable agriculture. Sustainability. 10 (2), 394-409.
Yu, K. 1995. Security Patterns in Landscape Planning: With a Case in South China. Dissertation, Harvard University.
Yu, K.J. 1996. Security patterns and surface model in landscape ecological planning. Landscape and Urban Planning. 36(1), 1-17.
Zhang, J., and Qiao, X., Yang, Y., Liu, L., Li, Y.,  Zhao, S. 2025. Ecological security driving mechanisms and optimization of zoning in Chinese urban agglomerations: A case study of the central plains urban agglomeration. Ecological Indicators. 171. 113190.
Zhang, K.. Lin, N., Xu, D., Yu, D., & Zou, C. 2018. Research advance on ecological security in China: Assessment models and management measures. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment. 34 (12), 1057-1063.
Zhang, L.Q., Peng, J., Liu, Y.X., and Wu, J.S. 2017. Coupling ecosystem services supply and human ecological demand to identify landscape ecological security pattern: a case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region China. Urban Ecosystems.20 (3), 701-714.
Zhao, J., Ma, C., Zhao, X., and Wang, X., 2018. Spatio-temporal dynamic analysis of sustainable development in China based on the footprint family. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 15 (2), 246.
Zhao, L., Liu, G., Xian, C., Nie, J., Xiao, Y., Zhou, Z., Li, X., and Wang, H. 2022. Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou. China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 19, 9281.
Zhao, Y.Z., Zou, X.Y., Cheng, H., Jia, H.K., Wu, Y.Q., Wang, G.Y., Zhang, Ch.L., and Gao, Sh.Y. 2006. Assessing the ecological security of the Tibetan plateau: Methodology and a case study for Lhaze County.  Journal of Environmental Management. 80(2), 120–131.
Zhong, Q., and Li, Z. 2024. Long-term trends of vegetation greenness under different urban development intensities in 889 global cities.  Sustainable Cities and Society. 106, 105406.
Zhou, X. 2007. Review of researches on ecological security assessment in China. Journal China West Normal University. 28 (3), 200–206.
Environmental Resources Research
Volume 13, Issue 1
July 2025
Pages 137-158

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics