Derivation of conflict resolution rule-curves in multi-purpose multi-reservoir system for inter-basin water transfer during drought

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran.

Abstract

Allocation is the number-one cause of conflict in water resources, whether between
sovereign nations, different user groups or neighboring basins. The inter-basin water
transfer is a remedy to the negative issues of water shortage in drought-stricken regions. In
a water transfer project, the receiving basin always benefits while the donor basin may
suffer. In this work, to define an operating policy, a multi-reservoir multi-purpose system is
simulated and optimized for a set of long-term historical records. A multi-objective
optimization model is developed based on Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm
(NSGA-II). The optimization results define the best possible performance set for a twobasin
system with the objectives of supplied water shortage minimization during droughts.
In a multi-objective optimization problem, there is not a single solution that simultaneously
optimizes all objectives. However, decision makers are concerned with finding a unique
compromise solution that balances conflicting objectives in a socially acceptable manner.
The game theory can identify and interpret the behaviors of parties in water resource
problems and describe interactions of different parties who give priority to their own
objectives, rather than system’s objective. Using the strategic form description for different
moves or actions available in the optimum trade-off front, Nash equilibrium outcomes
predicted by game theory narrow the results suggested by optimization method. In this
study, the inter-basin water transfer project from Zohreh multi-reservoir multi-purpose
system in southwestern Iran to the Persian Gulf coastal district is investigated using the
proposed methodology.

Keywords


Multipurpose and Multireservoir Systems. Journal Hydrology Engineer, 10.1061/ (ASCE) HE. 1943-
5584.0001329, 05016003.
Ahmadi Najl, A., Haghighi A., and Samani H.M. 2016. Deriving optimum trade-off between the benefits
and costs of interbasin water transfer projects, International Journal Optimum Civil Engineer,
6(2),173-185.
Ahmadi Najl, A., Haghighi, A., and Samani H.M. 2016. Simultaneous Optimization of Operating Rules
and Rule Curves for Multi-reservoir Systems Using a Self-Adaptive Simulation-GA Model. Journal
Water Resources Planning Management, 10.1061/(ASCE) WR.1943-5452.0000688, 04016041.
Ashofteh P., Haddad O., and Loáiciga H. 2015. Evaluation of Climatic-Change Impacts on Multiobjective
Reservoir Operation with Multi-objective Genetic Programming. Journal Water Resources
Planning Management, 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000540, 04015030.
66 S. Alahdin et al. / Environmental Resources Research 6, 1 (2018)
Bazargan-Lari M.R., Kerachian, R., and Mansoori A. 2009. A Conflict-Resolution Model for the
Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater Resources that Considers Water-Quality Issues: A Case
Study, Environmental Management, 43, 470. doi:10.1007/s00267-008-9191-6.
Chen Y., Su X., and Zhao X. 2012. Modeling Bounded Rationality in Capacity Allocation Games with
the Quantal Response Equilibrium, Management Science, 58(10),1952-1962.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1531.
Chu J., Zhang C., Fu G., Li Y., and Zhou H. 2015. Improving multi-objective reservoir operation
optimization with sensitivity-informed dimension reduction, Hydrology Earth Systematic Science, 19,
3557-3570, doi: 10.5194/hess-19-3557-2015.
Deb K. 2001. Multi-objective optimization using evolutionary algorithms, Chichester, London: Wiley.
Deb K., Pratap A., Agarwal S., and Meyarivan, T. 2002. A fast and elitist multi-objective genetic
algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transaction on Evolutionary Computation, 6(2), 181-197.
Goeree J. K., Holt C. A., and Palfrey T. R. 2005. Regular Quantal Response Equilibrium, 2005 Economic
Science Association, Experimental Economics, 8,347–367.
Gohari A., Eslamian S., Mirchi A., Abedi-Koupaei J., Massah Bavani A., and Madani K. 2013. Water
transfer as a solution to water shortage: A fix that can Backfire, Journal of Hydrology, 491, 23–39.
Haile P.A., Hortacsu A., and Kosenok G. 2008. On the empirical content of quantal response equilibrium.
American Economic Review, 98, 180-200.
Harsanyi J. 1973. Games with Randomly Disturbed Payoffs: A New Rationale for Mixed Strategy
Equilibrium, International Journal of Game Theory, 2, 1-23.
Hydrologic Engineering Center. 1966. Reservoir yield, generalized computer program 23-J2-L245. U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers, Davis, Calif.
Hydrologic Engineering Center. 1975. Hydrologic engineering methods for water resources development:
Vol. 8, reservoir yield. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Davis, Calif.
Jessie D.T., and Saari D.G. 2015. From the Luce Choice Axiom to the Quantal Response Equilibrium,
Journal of Mathematical Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.jmp. 2015.10.001.
Kerachian R., and Karamouz M. 2007. A stochastic conflict resolution model for water quality
management in reservoir–river systems, Advances in Water Resources, 30, 866–882.
Loeffler M. J. 1970. Australian-American inter-basin water transfer, 60 (3), 493–516, doi:
10.1111/j.1467-8306.1970.tb00737.x.
McFadden D. 1974. Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.)
Frontiers in Econometrics, New York: Academic Press.
McKelvey R. D., and Palfrey T. R. 1995. Quantal Response Equilibrium for Normal Form Games, Games
and Economic Behavior, 10, 6-38.
McKelvey R. D., and McLennan A. M., Turocy T. L. 2010. Gambit: Software Tools for Game Theory,
Version 0.2010.09.01., http://www.gambit-project.org.
Mendes L., de Barros M., Zambon R., and Yeh W. 2015. Trade-Off Analysis among Multiple Water Uses
in a Hydropower System: Case of São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage,
10.1061/(ASCE) WR.1943-5452.0000527, 04015014.
Neri C. 2014. Quantal response equilibrium in a double auction, Econ Theory Bull, doi:10.1007/s40505-
014-0038-4.
Opricovic S. 2009. A Compromise Solution in Water Resources Planning, Water Resource Manage,
23,1549–1561, doi:10.1007/s11269-008-9340-y
Read L., Madani K., and Inanloo B. 2014. Optimality versus stability in water resource allocation, Journal
of Environmental Management, 133, 343-354.
Rezapour Tabari M. M., and Yazdi A. 2014. Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater with Inter-
Basin Transfer Approach: Case Study Piranshahr, Water Resour Manage, 28, 1887.
doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0578-2.
Ridgley M. A., and Penn Liem D. C. 1997. Special issue: multiple objective decision making in
environmental management, Tran Applied Mathematics and Computation, 83 (2-3), 153 – 172.
Shirangi, E., Kerachian, R., and Bajestan, M.S. 2008. A simplified model for reservoir operation
considering the water quality issues: Application of the Young conflict resolution theory,
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 146, 77. doi:10.1007/s10661-007-0061-0.
Sieber J., and Purkey D. 2011. Calculation Algorithms; Water Evaluation And Planning System user
guide , SEI-US Water Program, Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. Center.
Suen J. P., and Wayland E. J. 2006. Reservoir management to balance ecosystem and human
needs: Incorporating the paradigm of the ecological flow regime, water resources research,
42, W03417, doi: 10.1029/2005 WR004314.
S. Alahdin et al. / Environmental Resources Research 6, 1 (2018) 67
Turocy T. L. 2005. A dynamic homotopy interpretation of the logistic quantal response equilibrium
correspondence, Games and Economic Behavior, 51, 243–263, doi:10.1016 /j.geb .2004.04.003.
Turocy T. L. 2010. Computing Sequential Equilibria Using Agent Quantal Response Equilibria,
Economic Theory, 42(1), 255-269.
Swatuk L. A., Mengiste A., and Jembere K. 2008. Conflict Resolution and Negotiation Skills for
Integrated Water Resources Management, Training Manual, International Network for Capacity
Building in Integrated Water Resources Management (UNDP Cap-Net).
United Nations. 2006. Water: A shared responsibility, World Water Development Report 2, New York
and Geneva: UNESCO and Berghan Books.
Wikipedia contributors. 2018. Pareto efficiency, In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, Retrieved 03:46,
May 28, 2018, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pareto _efficiency&oldid=842286030.
Zhang L., Li S., and Loáiciga H.A. 2015. Opportunities and challenges of inter-basin water transfers: a
literature review with bibliometric analysis, Scientometrics, 105, 279. doi:10.1007/s11192-015-1656-9.
Zhang B. 2016. Quantal response methods for equilibrium selection in normal form games, Journal of
Mathematical Economics, 64, 113–123.
Zhang B., and Hofbauer J. 2016. Quantal response methods for equilibrium selection in 2×2 coordination
games, Games and Economic Behavior, 97, 19–31.